Sampling Distributions

Learning Outcomes

  • Distribution of Mean

  • Distribution of Sample Variance

  • Likelihood Function

MGF Independence Property

If \(X\) and \(Y\) are independent, then the MGF of \(Z = X + Y\) equals the product of their MGFs:

\[ M_{Z}(t) = M_X(t)M_Y(t). \]

Sampling Distributions

Distribution of Means

Suppose \(X_1, \dots, X_n \sim \text{N}(\mu, \sigma^2)\)

Distribution of Sample Variance

Suppose \(X_1, \dots, X_n \sim \text{N}(\mu, \sigma^2)\)

Likelihood Function

Likelihood Function

The likelihood function tells us how plausible a set of parameter values is, given the observed data.

Setup

Given a random sample \(X_1, X_2, \dots, X_n \overset{iid}{\sim} F(x;\theta)\), where \(\theta\) are the parameters that shape the distribution function.

Then, the joint density function of the sample is:

\[ f(x_1, x_2, \dots, x_n; \theta) = \prod_{i=1}^n f(x_i; \theta) \]

This expression, viewed as a function of \(\theta\) (for fixed data \(x_i\)), is the likelihood function:

\[ L(\theta \mid x_1, x_2, \dots, x_n) = \prod_{i=1}^n f(x_i; \theta) \]

Likelihood vs. Probability

Concept Interpretation
Probability \(P(X = x \mid \theta)\): \(x\) is random, \(\theta\) fixed
Likelihood \(L(\theta \mid x)\): \(x\) fixed, \(\theta\) variable

Although they share the same mathematical form, their interpretations differ.

Log-Likelihood Function

For convenience, we often work with the log-likelihood:

\[ \ell(\theta) = \log L(\theta) \]

Example 1: Bernoulli Random Variables

Suppose \(X_1, \dots, X_n \sim \text{Bernoulli}(p)\).

\[ f(x_i; p) = p^{x_i}(1 - p)^{1 - x_i} \]

Example 2: Poisson Random Variables

Suppose \(X_1, \dots, X_n \sim \text{Pois}(\lambda)\)

\[ f(x_i; \lambda) = \frac{e^{-\lambda}\lambda^{x_i}}{x_i!} \]

Example 3: Normal Random Variables

Suppose \(X_1, \dots, X_n \sim \text{N}(\mu, \sigma^2)\)

\[ f(x_i; \lambda) = \frac{1}{\sqrt{2\pi\sigma^2}}e^{-\frac{(x_i-\mu)^2}{2\sigma^2}} \]

Optimization

Optimization

For a given function \(f(x)\), optimization is the process of finding the value of \(x\) where \(f(x)\) is either the maximum or minimum.

Finding X

To find \(x\),

\[ f^\prime (x) = 0 \]

Maximum or Minimum

Maximum

\[ f^{\prime\prime} (X) <0 \]

Minimum

\[ f^{\prime\prime} (X) <0 \]

Example

\[ f(x) = x^2 + 5x + 3 \]

Example

\[ f(x) = -4(3x - 9)^2 + 12 \]